Politics

AfD Hits 29 Percent in INSA Poll – Germany's Far-Right Reaches New High

CDU/CSU falls to 22 percent as SPD collapses to 12 percent – AfD leads by widest margin since the federal election

By ZenNews Editorial May 16, 2026 2 min read Updated: May 16, 2026

AfD Hits 29 Percent in INSA Poll – Germany's Far-Right Reaches New High

A new survey by German pollster INSA places the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) at 29 percent – the party's highest poll rating since the German federal election in February 2025. The AfD leads Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU by 7 percentage points, with the governing conservatives at just 22 percent.

At a Glance

AfD far-right party reaches 29% in new INSA poll, up 8.2 points since February 2025 election, now leading CDU/CSU by 7 points.
Despite being most popular party, AfD excluded from government by firewall maintained by all mainstream parties.
Current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would command only 34% in new election, far below 50% majority threshold needed to govern.

Poll Results at a Glance

INSA survey, published 16 May 2026:

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AfD: 29 percent (+8.2 pp since Feb 2025 federal election)
CDU/CSU: 22 percent (–6.5 pp)
Greens: 14 percent (+2.4 pp)
SPD: 12 percent (–8.5 pp)
Linke (The Left): 10 percent
BSW: 3 percent
FDP: 3 percent (below 5% threshold – no parliamentary seats)

The AfD won 20.8 percent at the federal election in February 2025. The latest INSA figure represents a gain of more than 8 percentage points in just three months.

What This Means for German Politics

Despite leading all parties in polls, the AfD remains excluded from any coalition by the so-called "firewall" (Brandmauer) upheld by the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens and all other mainstream parties. This means Germany is in an unusual position: its most popular party in surveys cannot enter government.

The current coalition of CDU/CSU (22%) and SPD (12%) would command only 34 percent in a hypothetical new election – far below the 50 percent majority threshold. Even adding the Greens (14%) produces only 48 percent, still short of a governing majority.

SPD in Crisis

The Social Democrats, who won 20.5 percent at the last election, are now polling at just 12 percent – a fall of nearly nine points. As junior partner in the CDU-led grand coalition, the SPD faces internal pressure to draw sharper distinctions from the conservatives and rebuild trust with its traditional working-class voter base.

Polling Context

INSA surveys tend to produce higher AfD figures than other pollsters. The cross-institute average for the AfD currently stands at around 27–28 percent. However, the direction of travel is consistent across all polling organisations: the AfD is rising, and the governing parties are losing ground.

Our Take

Germany faces a political impasse where its polling leader cannot form a government due to mainstream party refusal to coalition with the AfD. The governing coalition lacks sufficient support for a majority, creating potential instability in European politics.

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